A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
